Eric's Insight: Death of Hadi causes Bangladesh-India ties to move towards structural confrontation

Sharif Osmann Hadi, a youth leader of the Bangladeshi right-wing cultural organization "The Inquilab Mancha," was assassinated while conducting an election campaign in Dhaka on December 12, triggering large-scale domestic unrest in Bangladesh. On December 18, Hadi passed away in a hospital. He was a key figure of the Bangladeshi "July Uprising" in 2024 and enjoyed great popularity in the country.

Just a few days later, Bangladesh witnessed another assassination targeting a political leader. On December 22, Mohammad Motaleb Sikder, the leader of the newly-born National Citizens' Party (NCP), was shot in the head and rushed to the hospital. The NCP was a students’ political party established after the "July Uprising."

So how does the Bangladeshis view the recent assassinations? Why has there been a surge of violence targeting "pro-India forces" in Bangladesh?

Why is the finger pointed at India?

A most prevalent opinion in Bangladesh is that the perpetrator behind Hadi’s assassination is a member of the former ruling party, the Awami League Party (AL). The suspect was expelled during the "July Uprising", while the AL was banned by Bangladesh’s interim government under the Anti-Terrorism Act.

As the AL is traditionally considered a pro-India political faction, and India has provided shelter to Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been active in India since the "July Uprising," the Bangladeshi public opinion largely attributes the assassination to "Indian instigation."

As a result, a large-scale violence targeting "pro-India forces" broke out in Bangladesh. The offices of the country’s largest newspapers, Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, both perceived as pro-India, were set on fire, and the consulate general of India in Chittagong was attacked.

Hadi was well-known for his anti-India stance during his lifetime and is now regarded as an "anti-India martyr." On December 20, Bangladesh’s interim government announced a state funeral for Hadi, who was buried beside the grave of the national poet Kazi Nazrul Islam. Tens of thousands attended the funeral, honoring him with great reverence.

What are the specific responses in Bangladesh?

Hadi’s assassination has pushed Bangladesh-India relations to a critical breaking point and placed immense pressure on Bangladesh’s interim government. Protesters in Bangladesh have demanded the resignation of high-ranking government officials and called for a substantial reward to capture the perpetrator. Rumors that the suspect may have fled to India have further fueled public anger.

The interim government of Bangladesh was compelled to issue a strong statement: pledging a full investigation into the whereabouts of the assassin and offering a reward of up to 5 million taka (approximately RMB 290,000).

Diplomatically, the interim government summoned the Indian ambassador to Bangladesh to express serious concerns over India’s sheltering of Sheikh Hasina and accused AL leaders of planning "terrorist activities" from within India to disrupt the upcoming Bangladeshi elections. Bangladesh demanded India’s swift extradition of Hasina and other high-ranking officials. India’s foreign ministry denied the allegations.

Political forces in Bangladesh have sought to capitalize on the incident: Hadi’s "The Inquilab Mancha" declared him a "martyr against Indian hegemony." The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the country’s largest political party, expressed deep condolences for Hadi’s death, while the second-largest party, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), declared Hadi a "martyr."

The NCP leader even warned that if India does not respect Bangladesh’s sovereignty, Bangladesh would support separatist forces in India’s northeastern region and provide them with shelter, sparking an uproar in Indian public opinion. The Indian Foreign Affairs Committee has issued a report to the Indian Parliament, warning that India faces the biggest crisis caused by Bangladeshis since the independence of Bangladesh.

Is India a partner or a threat?

The current storm in India-Bangladesh relations cannot be solely attributed to a political assassination. Instead, it represents the culmination of Bangladesh’s long-simmering anxieties toward India.

Due to the anarchic nature of international relations, a country’s security and development are often threatened by uncertainties beyond its control, leading to persistent societal anxiety. In relations between large and small countries, the smaller nation is often the more anxious party, as it is more vulnerable to the dynamics of the relationship.

Over the years, Bangladesh has accumulated significant anxiety in its dealing with its larger neighbor, India. This includes unfairness in the distribution of Ganges River water resources, killings of Bangladeshi citizens by Indian border forces, and prolonged stagnation in India-Bangladesh connectivity projects.
Bangladesh’s actions on dealing with its giant neighbor are driven not merely by rational calculations of interests but also by the need to manage uncertainties and fears. The urgent question for Bangladeshis is: Is this powerful neighbor a partner or a threat?

Will India extradite Hasina?

The Hadi incident provided an outlet for releasing this pent-up anxiety. The intense reactions from the Bangladeshi society and political parties can be seen, in a sense, as a "pressure test" on India. By displaying tough or even "extreme" postures, Bangladesh is testing India’s red lines and intentions. Bangladesh expected India to make concessions to alleviate its anxieties, such as extraditing Sheikh Hasina to prove "the Indian innocence."

However, it is unlikely that India will pay such a high political price. Consequently, a possible outcome is that India’s silence or strong response will be interpreted by Bangladesh as "confirmed hostility." This, in turn, could lead Bangladesh to label India as an enemy, paradoxically providing a sense of psychological reassurance to the Bangladeshi society.

Once confrontation is seen as inevitable, Bangladesh’s internal mobilization and toughness towards India will be justified. The Bangladeshi confrontational posture would likely provoke countermeasures from India, leading to a downward spiral in bilateral relations.

By transforming the uncertain India-Bangladesh ties into a certain "confrontational relationship," Bangladesh has managed its anxieties—a classic case of misperception in international politics, often described as a "self-fulfilling prophecy."

The fragmented political landscape in Bangladesh has exacerbated this process, with political parties vying to capitalize on societal anxieties and escalating their anti-India rhetoric. Overall, this trend is unlikely to reverse in the short or medium term, and India-Bangladesh relations may have already “crossed the Rubicon.”

Writing by Wu Mengke (assistant researcher and Ph.D. holder at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies); Editing by Zhang Ruogu, Zu Hongbing and Li Tao; Translating by Wang Shixue

(The article represents the author's personal views and does not necessarily reflect the stance of Mekong News Network, YICC.)