Expert: Putin’s visits to India is mutual pursuit out of shared interests

Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a state visit to India and attended the 23rd India-Russia Summit in earlier this month. This visit coincides with the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the strategic partnership between the two countries and marks President Putin's first visit to India since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Why did Putin choose this timing to visit India? What impact will this visit have on bilateral cooperation and the geopolitical landscape?

U.S. factor and Russia-Ukraine conflict as direct catalysts

The motivations behind Putin's visit are rooted in the respective practical challenges and strategic demands of Russia and India, with the U.S. factor and the Russia-Ukraine conflict serving as direct catalysts.

Since former President Trump's returned to office, the U.S. has accused India of assisting Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by "purchasing Russian oil" and has thus imposed additional tariffs on India, with the cumulative rate reaching 50%.

Washington's attempting to pressure New Delhi into shifting towards importing American energy and weapons has strained U.S.-India relations. Consequently, India chose to deepen cooperation with Russia to play against the U.S., ensuring its energy security while seeking leverage in tariff negotiations with Washington.

The Ukraine issue is not merely a bilateral conflict between Russia and Ukraine but has gradually evolved into an intense four-party game involving the U.S., Russia, Europe, and Ukraine. Despite previous signs of easing in U.S.-Russia relations, the difficulty for the U.S. and Europe to coordinate consistently on Ukraine, coupled with the counterbalance of EU position on the U.S.-Russia agenda on Ukraine, has hindered substantive progress.

As a major global energy importer and a traditional buyer of Russian weapons, India serves as both a "refueling station" for Russia to alleviate financial pressure and a "breakthrough point" to escape diplomatic isolation. Against this complex backdrop, Putin's visit to India sends a signal that "Russia is not isolated."

From "resource for weapon" to multiple synergy

On December 5, Russia and India held the 23rd summit. Contrary to expectations of large-scale arms deals, the summit consolidated traditional areas in bilateral cooperation, while breaking new ground in emerging fields.

The two sides deepened cooperation in the two traditional pillars of energy and defense. Putin promised Russia's willingness to continue "uninterrupted" supplies of resources like oil and gas, while Modi positioned energy security as a core pillar of their strategic partnership.

Simultaneously, the joint statement released by both sides stated they would encourage cooperation in producing components for Russian-style weapons and defense equipment in India through technology transfer and joint ventures. They also explicitly pledged to advance nuclear energy cooperation, including the construction of subsequent units at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in southern India and site selection for new plants.

More groundbreaking was the expansion into new areas of cooperation. Economically, they finalized a "Cooperation Plan until 2030," aiming to increase bilateral trade from the current $68.7 billion to $100 billion by the end of 2030.

Labor cooperation emerged as an unexpected highlight. The signing of two migration agreements will allow millions of Indian workers to enter Russian sectors like manufacturing and construction, alleviating Russia's labor shortage while opening new employment channels for India.

In connectivity and finance, the two sides focused on projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor and Arctic shipping routes, and they will promote cooperation in local currency settlement and payment systems. These aim to reduce dependence on Western shipping and financial systems.

The Russia-India cooperation is shifting from a one-way model of "resources for weapons" towards a multi-dimensional synergy that covers energy, human resources, trade and infrastructure.

India's strategy of "using Russia to balance the U.S."

During the India-Russia Summit, Modi reiterated India's stance of supporting a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war and "standing on the side of peace."

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has not followed the West in condemning Russia but has instead continued to deepen cooperation with Moscow. While the strengthened cooperation does not directly involve battlefield assistance, it indirectly provides Russia with an economic buffer and diplomatic support, challenging the West's dominance over the Ukraine issue. The cooperation also created an opportunity for the formation of a more diverse and equitable conflict mediation mechanism in the future.

For U.S.-India relations, this summit is a public declaration of India's "strategic autonomy." Details such as Modi's high-level reception for Putin and the choice of non-European brand cars for the airport pickup clearly expressed an attitude of "not being coerced by the U.S."

This strategy of "using Russia to balance the U.S." aims to pressure Washington into making concessions in tariff negotiations while also introducing variables into U.S.-India cooperation within the Indo-Pacific Strategy. For the global order, the Russia-India attempt at "de-westernization" in energy, finance and shipping resonates with cooperation within BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it will provide emerging economies with an alternative to evade hegemonic sanctions.

Of course, this cooperation still faces numerous uncertainties. Increasing Indian exports to Russia will require time, the acceptance of rupee settlement needs improvement, and the U.S. and European sanctions may escalate further in the future.

Nevertheless, it is undeniable that Putin's visit has tempered Russia-India relations, forging greater resilience under pressure. Amid increasingly intense great power rivalry, this strategic synergy based on practical interests is reshaping the traditional geopolitical map. The dynamic balance within the U.S.-Russia-India triangular relationship may become a significant variable in the future evolution of the global order.

Writing by Jiang Li (a Ph.D. holder with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Online photos; Editing by Zhang Ruogu, Zu Hongbing and Li Tao; Translating by Wang Shixue

(The article represents the author's personal views and does not necessarily reflect the stance of Yunnan Gateway.)