Is US attack on Iran imminent?

Washington has recently deployed two aircraft carriers from its naval fleet to be stationed near Iran. Photo/US military

The airstrike, though finally came by US bomber jets, was carried out on specific targets, including nuclear sites and economic lifelines, and not as a full-scale airstrike on the country’s civilian population areas or general military installations. However, these strikes by the US were enough to cause reasonable damage to nuclear sites, but these hits also caused meaningful destruction to Iran’s economic infrastructure and led to social turmoil that could bring about huge inflation and economic crises, more than enough to set a platform for public protests, a very strong prerequisite for bringing a change of regime.

The situation in Iran, soon after the conflict was over, began simmering as unrest spread across the country, which later transformed into large-scale protests against the government (regime). The protests, which Iran claimed were orchestrated, fueled, and funded by US intelligence agencies such as the CIA and Israeli intelligence Mossad, claimed hundreds of lives from both sides. Tehran also presented many US and Israel backed protesters and operators of these agencies belonging to Afghanistan and India. Similarly, the way the US president came out in support of protesters and started threatening the Iranian government for using force against protesters made it very evident that the entire episode had foreign backing and gave maximum credence to Tehran’s claims.

However, after a few weeks, Tehran managed to address the law-and-order situation and then began rallies of huge protests in support of the Iranian government, which made the anti-government protests look meager and mediocre. The way the US started moving in the Iran case, it appeared that they were threatening much and actually doing very little to launch an attack.

In the current scenario, where US President Donald Trump is constantly advertising his forces’ march towards Iran, it appears to be more of a publicity stunt than a real military maneuver. The Trump administration, it seems, is still working on some plan of regime change in Tehran and is looking for some eleventh-hour major development to get rid of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, through behind-the-scenes negotiations or through some internal arrangements with the elected government in Tehran. The slow-motion advancement of US forces for attacking Iran clearly reflects that Washington is looking to achieve something without firing a bullet or dropping a single bomb.

On the other side, the Iran tension has created a state of panic in the region. With merely India supporting Israel against Iran despite very strong trade, security, economic, and diplomatic ties with Tehran, almost all regional countries support Iran. With China urging restraint and dialogue over the Iran issue, Beijing also stated that it stands firm with Iran against any foreign interference. China, the biggest oil importer from Iran, has constantly been monitoring the situation and has been issuing very careful statements. Chinese officials have publicly condemned actions that infringe upon Iran’s sovereignty and called on all parties to exercise restraint.

China’s primary interest is the stability of the Middle East to ensure the security of its energy imports and Belt and Road Initiative investments. A full-scale war in the region would disrupt oil supplies and pose significant economic risks not only for China but also for many regional states.

Similarly, the Turkish and Qatari governments have also strongly rejected US and Israeli plans and have shown unconditional support for Iran at all legitimate forums and through all legitimate means. Pakistan is another major regional power, having direct land borders with Iran. Pakistan has also adopted a strong line in support of Iran’s sovereignty and has not encouraged any plans for a foreign attack on Iran. It has shown no indication of allowing any foreign military to use its land or air bases against Iran, nor has it withdrawn its diplomatic and political support for Tehran. Like China, Pakistan has also been urging restraint.

However, any political or economic instability or a war in Iran would have more negative consequences for Pakistan than for any other neighboring country. Apart from economic influx issues, Pakistan is also vulnerable to terror attacks from across the Iran border. Since Pakistan’s Balochistan province border areas and Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province border areas have remained very volatile regarding incidents of militant clashes and terrorism with Sistan having a majority of dissidents opposed to Tehran, a war in Iran could have a huge impact on this border area and could spread deep inside Pakistan. The security analysts and economists believe that in case an attack is carried out on Iran and war of any magnitude erupts, a post war Iran would not only be huge security risk for the entire region but its consequences would continue to harm Washington’s own interests in the region.

Pakistan’s major infrastructural development under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and mega projects like Gwadar Port are located in Balochistan province, where both Indian and Western intelligence agencies have constantly been targeting CPEC projects. This could make the security situation more fragile and force Pakistan to invest more finances and manpower to enhance an already disturbed security environment due to foreign-based terrorism, which Pakistani security forces are already fighting day and night. Some analysts even suggest that by attacking Iran, the US could be eyeing harm to China’s interests on one hand, by disrupting China’s oil supplies from Iran, and on the other hand, by creating a situation that could make it easier for Iran- and Afghanistan-based foreign-funded terror infrastructures to target China-backed CPEC projects in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

Since Pakistan enjoys very good relations with both Tehran and Washington, world leaders expect that Pakistan’s behind-the-scenes efforts could pave the way for negotiations between the two. With Iran once again showing willingness to go to the negotiation table, Israel’s approach towards Pakistan appears to be a major hurdle for Islamabad in clinching an early peace deal in this otherwise imminent clash.

(The author Makhdoom Babar is President and Editor-in-Chief of The Daily Mail, Pakistan and Chairman of Global Research Institute for Peace (GRIP)